欧洲的海上风电前景再度向好。2023年，欧洲将创下新纪录的4.2GW的海上风电场投产，实现了与2022年相比40%的增长。此外，300亿欧元的投资被确认，未来几年还将建设9GW的风电场。供应链也迎来了转机，波兰、丹麦、德国、荷兰和西班牙都宣布将新建工厂。
2023年是欧盟和整个欧洲海上风电新装量最高的一年。2023年，欧洲海上风电装机容量达到4.2千GW，相较2022年增加了1.7GW。其中欧盟占3GW，同比增加2.1GW。其中，荷兰、法国和英国的新增装机容量最大。新增的位于荷兰的"Hollandse Kust Zuid"项目，装机容量达1.5GW，是目前世界上最大的运营中风电场。
图片来源：WindEurope
海上风电投资创纪录
欧洲的海上风电投资也在2023年创下了新纪录。新建的8个风电场共筹集了300亿欧元的投资，新增装机规模达9GW。在此之前，法律上的不确定性及无益的市场干预曾一度导致海上风电投资下降，并在2022年降至4亿欧元的历史最低点。新投资记录也意味着那些在2022年推迟进行最终投资决策的项目迎来了新进展——这对欧洲的能源安全和竞争力来说是个好消息。
2023年所取得的积极进展，为欧洲海上风电企业带来了信心，从业态度也更为乐观。欧盟也在2023 年公布了欧盟风能一揽子计划，其中包括将立即采取的15项支持欧洲风能行业的行动。26个欧洲国家的政府签署了《欧洲风能宪章》，承诺迅速实施风能一揽子计划中所规定的行动。
在英国，政府将海上风电项目招标（AR6）的最高限价也提高了66%。在2023年的Cfd招标（AR5）中，由于英国政府未能考虑到通货膨胀和成本上涨等市场现状并调整最高限价，所以最终没有一家海上风电开发商投标。新的AR6最高限价将有助于英国在2024年吸引到更多海上风电投资。
另一些关于英国的好消息是：Orsted最终决定投资欧洲最大的项目——英国2.9GW的Hornsea 3海上风电场；RWE收购了4.2GW的诺福克海上风区项目组合，并将恢复此前已停运的1.4GW的瓦诺福克Boreas项目。
2024年——海上风电招标“大年”
如果所有国家都按计划举办2024年的招标，那么今年的招标规模将达到40GW。德国、丹麦、英国、法国和荷兰是未来两年招标新增容量最大的五个国家。法国将宣布欧洲首个商业规模的浮动海上风电招标结果，德国仅在2024年就将有8GW的容量进行招标。而作为对比，在2023年，欧洲仅有13.5GW的新装海上风电进行招标。
但是，在2023年的所有招标中，有70%采用了无上限的负竞标，要求风能开发商为海上风电场的建设权付费——这种情况急待改变。无上限负竞价带来了许多风险，开发商必须承担负竞价的额外成本。他们要么将这些成本转嫁给已经饱受高价之苦的电力消费者，要么转嫁给已经在通货膨胀和成本增加中挣扎的风电供应链。负竞价投标还增加了项目的整体风险，进而抬高了项目的资金成本。在目前利率较高的情况下，这尤其备受挑战。因此，无上限的负竞标会使项目面临难以落实的风险。
波兰海上风电的“巨额投资”
波兰首个商业海上风电场——1.2GW波罗的海电力项目于2023年作出最终投资决定，这也标志着波兰海上风电发展计划的启动。到2040年，波兰希望拥有18GW的海上风电场。而目前，波兰还没有任何海上风电项目。
雄心勃勃的扩张目标、法律上的规则明确以及对未来项目清晰可见的规划是吸引供应链投资的关键，波兰的雄心也正在得到回报。维斯塔斯宣布计划在波兰什切青为其旗舰产品V236-15.0W海上风机建造一座新的叶片工厂，该工厂预计将于2026年投入运营，加上维斯塔斯之前宣布的海上机舱装配厂建设计划，到2026年，维斯塔斯可以为什切青提供1,700个直接就业机会。Windar Renovables也已与什切青港务局签署了特许协议，计划在波兰建立一座海上塔筒工厂，将再额外创造450个直接就业机会。波罗的海铁塔公司也正在波兰格但斯克建设另一家塔筒工厂。
持续增强的供应链能力
除了在波兰的投资外，鹿特丹的Sif公司、埃斯比约的波罗的海结构公司和英国的SEaH公司也正在为三座新的海上风机进行基础设施建设。欧洲需要更多这样的投入，来避免海上风电供应链出现瓶颈。
未来三年，欧洲每年将建设约5GW的海上风电，但这还不足以实现欧洲的气候和能源安全目标。因此，在2030年以前，欧洲各国需要在2027-2030年期间平均每年建设24GW的海上风电装机量，以实现2030年的目标，但目前的海上风电供应链每年只能生产约7千兆瓦的新增装机容量。
投资扩建和新建工厂（如维斯塔斯现在已宣布的投资）是不可或缺的。与此同时，欧洲需要确保海上风电配套的基础设施到位。这意味着也要对电网、港口和船只进行投资。在这方面，我们已经看到了初步进展。欧洲领先的海上电力电缆制造商都在扩建原有工厂，以确保能够满足欧洲海上风电场对电缆不断增长的需求。Bladt Industries正在丹麦建造一座用于海上变电站生产的新工厂；Smulders和Neptun Werft正在德国罗斯托克建造一座新工厂生产相关配套设备；Dragados也正在扩张其在西班牙加的斯的海上变电站平台制造业务。
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英文原文
Lots of good news in offshore wind, including in the supply chain
Things are looking up again for offshore wind in Europe. 2023 saw a record 4.2 GW of new offshore wind farms come online, up 40% on 2022. And €30bn of new investments were confirmed – covering 9 GW that’ll be built over the coming years. The supply chain is also seeing a turnaround, with new factories announced in Poland, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain.
2023 was the best year on record for new offshore wind installations in both the EU and across Europe as a whole. Europe built 4.2 GW of offshore wind in 2023. That’s 1.7 GW more than in 2022. 3 GW of that was in the EU, an increase of 2.1 GW year on year.
The Netherlands, France and the UK installed the most new capacity. This includes the 1.5 GW “Hollandse Kust Zuid” project in the Netherlands – now the world’s largest operational wind farm.
Record investments in new offshore wind
Offshore wind investments in Europe also reached a new record. A total of €30bn was raised across 8 wind farms. This will finance 9 GW of new offshore capacity. This record comes after legal uncertainty and unhelpful market intervention had led to a drop in offshore wind investments, falling to an all-time low of €0.4bn in 2022. It also means that projects which had to postpone their final investment decision in 2022 are now moving ahead – excellent news for Europe’s energy security and competitiveness.
2023 saw several positive developments, leading to new confidence and optimism among Europe’s offshore wind players. The European Union published its EU Wind Power Package with 15 immediate actions to support the European wind sector. 26 European Governments signed the European Wind Charter, committing to swiftly implement the actions ascribed to them in the Wind Power Package.
Over in the UK the Government raised the ceiling price by 66% for the upcoming offshore auction round (AR6). Not a single offshore wind developer had bid in the 2023 CfD auction round (AR5) after the UK Government failed to adjust the maximum ceiling price to the market reality of inflation and higher input prices. The new AR6 ceiling price could help the UK attract record investment in offshore wind in 2024.
That’s not the only good news from the UK: Orsted reached final investment decision on Europe’s biggest project, the 2.9 GW Hornsea 3 offshore wind farm in the UK. RWE acquired the 4.2 GW Norfolk Offshore Wind Zone portfolio and underlined its determination to resume the 1.4 GW Norfolk Boreas project, which has previously been halted.
2024 – a big year for offshore wind auctions
If all countries run their 2024 auctions as planned at least 40 GW will be auctioned this year. Germany, Denmark, the UK, France, and Netherlands are the top five countries auctioning capacity over the next two years. France will announce the results of Europe’s first commercial-scale floating offshore wind tender. Germany will auction 8 GW in 2024 alone. As a comparison: Europe auctioned 13.5 GW of new offshore wind capacity in 2023.
But 70% of all auctions in 2023 used uncapped negative bidding, asking wind energy developers to pay for the right to build an offshore wind farm. This needs to change!
Uncapped negative bidding poses several big risks. Developers have to cover the additional costs of negative bids. They can either pass them on to the electricity consumers, who are already suffering from high prices, or on to the wind energy supply chain, which is already struggling with inflation and cost increases. Negative bidding also adds to the overall project risk which in turn drives up capital costs. This is particularly challenging with higher interest rates now. As a result uncapped negative bidding puts the realisation of projects at risk.
Big investment in Polish offshore wind
Poland’s first commercial offshore wind farm, the 1.2 GW Baltic Power project, reached final investment decision in 2023, marking the start of Poland’s offshore wind development plans. By 2040 Poland wants to have 18 GW. Today Poland does not have any offshore wind.
Ambitious expansion targets, legal certainty and clear visibility on future projects are key to attracting supply chain investments. And Poland’s ambition is paying off. Vestas announced plans to build a new blade factory in Szczecin, Poland for its flagship V236-15.0 MW offshore wind turbine. The factory is expected to start operations in 2026. Together with Vestas’ previously announced plans to establish an assembly factory for offshore nacelles, Vestas could provide 1,700 direct jobs in Szczecin by 2026. Windar Renovables has signed a concession agreement with the Port Authority of Szczecin for a planned offshore tower factory in Poland creating an additional 450 direct jobs. Baltic Towers are building another new tower factory in Gdańsk.
Scaling up the supply chain
In addition to the investments in Poland, three new foundation manufacturing facilities for offshore turbines are being built by Sif in Rotterdam, Baltic Structures in Esbjerg and by SEaH in the UK. Europe needs more of these investments to avoid bottlenecks in the offshore wind supply chain.
Europe is set to build around 5 GW of offshore wind annually over the next three years. This is not enough to reach Europe’s climate and energy security targets. It adds to the need to install more offshore wind towards the end of the decade. European countries will need to build 24 GW a year in the period 2027-2030 to reach the 2030 targets. But today’s offshore wind supply chain can only produce around 7 GW each year.
Investments in expanded and new factories, like the one now announced by Vestas, are indispensable. In parallel Europe needs to ensure the supporting infrastructure for offshore wind is in place. This means investing in grids, ports, and vessels. Here we’ve seen the first signs of progress. Europe’s leading manufacturers of offshore power cables are all expanding their factories which should ensure they can meet the growing demand for cable to connect offshore wind farms in Europe. Bladt Industries are building a new factory in Denmark for offshore substations. Smulders and Neptun Werft are building a new facility in Rostock (Germany) to make converter platforms. And Dragados are expanding their offshore substation platform manufacturing operations in Cadiz (Spain).
